by Winston Wendell
President Trump and the military establishment are learning that the campaign to strike Iran has been an expensive affair with diminishing returns and that the President’s political capital may be quickly running out.
In a tight presidential election year, Iran appears to have the best hand at the table. According to a number of media reports, Tehran has calculated that it already has the most to gain from whatever confrontation may unfold – and believes it may soon have reason to stop playing the game.
At this stage, the war may prove to be too costly, too long and too unpopular to achieve its political aims.
War Chest is Empty
The President’s options are being severely limited by the growing realization that the Pentagon is running low on long-range precision-guided munitions.
While the President’s press secretary has quickly dismissed such reports as false, the costs of war are nevertheless proving to be very real.
The Iranians know that time is not on America’s side and they have little doubt that eventually, even the most bellicose elements in Washington will come to realize the same thing.
At the Gas Pump
Meanwhile, back on American soil, the President’s economic policies are taking their toll: after another month of heightened hostilities, the national average for a gallon of gasoline now exceeds $4 and voters are not happy.
For the GOP, this is especially bad news, since it is the party that has benefited most from the recession and the voters who feel the effects of a tightening economy are likely to remain leery about any further adventures abroad.
With the midterms looming, voters are already starting to think about their options and higher prices at the pump are unlikely to help Trump’s chances.
Approval Ratings Plummet
According to a survey conducted last month by YouGov, Trump’s overall job approval rating has plunged to a shocking 34 percent – the lowest it has ever been, according to this pollster.
When it comes to the war, his numbers were even worse: according to a recent Associated Press-NORC survey, only 28 percent of voters approved of the job he has done in handling the crisis.
A president engaged in an unpopular war, with an economy that is still struggling under the weight of inflation, is likely to have an exceptionally difficult time during the electoral cycle.
Looking For An Exit Strategy
According to a recent report by the Wall Street Journal , Trump has already started considering ways to cut his losses and end his involvement in the crisis. In this scenario, Trump has apparently proposed to declare victory if and when Iranian forces open up the Strait of Hormuz for commercial traffic to resume.
However, this “win” scenario does not appear to include limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the original goal of the campaign which, ironically, no longer seems desirable to its initiators.
In effect, if Trump were to declare victory, he would have to do so even as he leaves in place the very policies that continue to threaten America’s national security.
The lesson to be learned from his campaign of aggression against Iran appears to be that endless wars of decision have an unfortunate habit of making even the most well-intentioned politicians look like fools.
Gas prices, his own party, the polls, and the military budget are all combining to put unprecedented pressure on the President and he is beginning to feel it. Tehran certainly realizes it, and so does the GOP, which is already looking for ways to spin a hasty withdrawal as a presidential triumph.
