
Blue Press Journal – President Donald Trump’s political Teflon may finally be peeling off. After surviving impeachments, criminal indictments, and market-rattling tariff wars, his unauthorized military campaign against Iran has triggered a collapse in public support that analysts say could define his second term—and end his legislative agenda.
According to data from the poll aggregator FiftyPlusOne, Trump’s net approval has plunged to negative 21.4%, dipping below 40% for the first time since his January inauguration. Writing for Strength In Numbers, pollster G. Elliott Morris noted that Trump’s ratings now represent “the lowest of any president at this point in their term, going back to FDR.”
The catalyst is a war with no apparent exit strategy. During a Wednesday address to the nation, Trump offered no clear plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil flows—instead telling European and Asian allies to “grab and cherish” responsibility for the crisis he created. Markets immediately punished the uncertainty, with oil prices spiking and equities tumbling as traders absorbed the economic shock.
The contradiction is politically toxic. Trump campaigned in 2024 on lowering household costs, yet his Iran war has compounded inflationary pressures already exacerbated by chaotic tariff policies. Energy analyst Rory Johnston warned listeners on the Commodity Context podcast that futures markets are exhibiting “irrational optimism,” adding that “futures markets are grievously underpricing” the sustained energy crisis.
Demographically, the erosion is sweeping. A recent CNN survey found that 80% of voters aged 18-34 now disapprove of his handling of the presidency, along with 73% of independents. Research from the Center for Working-Class Politics indicates that working-class Black and Latino voters—critical to Trump’s 2024 popular vote victory—are rapidly retreating from the GOP, a shift already visible in 2025’s off-year gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.
With midterm elections just seven months away, Republicans face the prospect of losing the House, which would effectively halt Trump’s agenda and potentially subject his final two years to investigation and gridlock. By simultaneously replicating Jimmy Carter’s energy shock, George W. Bush’s catastrophic Middle East war, and Joe Biden’s inflation woes—all within a single term—Trump may have finally constructed a scandal too vast to escape.

