Why Democrats Are Still a Viable Bet for 2026 – Even With Their Worst‑Ever Approval Rating

Blue Press Journal
December 23, 2025

A fresh Quinnipiac University national poll shows Democrats in Congress are sitting at a historic low 28 % job approval.
Yet 45 % of respondents say they would still consider voting for a Democratic congressional candidate in 2026.
68 % of Americans think former President Donald Trump’s use of presidential power “goes too far.”
The data point to a classic “approval‑rating‑vs‑electability” paradox that could reshape campaign strategies heading into the 2026 midterms.

1. The Numbers in Plain English

Metric	Result	How It Changed Since 2024
Overall job approval for Democrats in Congress	28 % (record low)	Down 7 points from the previous quarter
Likelihood to vote for a Democrat in 2026	45 % (still a plurality)	Up 3 points despite the approval dip
Belief that Trump’s use of power is excessive	68 % (majority)	Roughly unchanged from 2023, but still high

Key takeaway: Even though voters are openly dissatisfied with how Democrats are performing today, nearly half say they would still cast a ballot for a Democrat three years from now.

2. Why the Gap Exists

2.1 “Low Approval ≠ Low Loyalty”

Political science research consistently shows that approval ratings capture short‑term sentiment, while voter loyalty reflects deeper partisan identity, issue alignment, and strategic voting.

Partisan Realignment: The Democratic Party still enjoys a solid base among younger voters, suburban women, and minority groups—demographics that are historically more reliable turn‑out voters.
Policy Preference: Survey respondents rank climate action, health‑care affordability, and student‑loan relief as top issues. Even with a “bad” Congress, many see Democrats as the party most likely to advance those policies.
Opposition Fatigue: A sizable portion of the electorate is weary of the constant political drama surrounding Trump and his allies. That fatigue translates into a willingness to “vote for the lesser evil,” even if the incumbent party is underperforming.

2.2 The Trump Factor

The same poll asked respondents to evaluate former President Trump’s use of executive power. 68 % said it “goes too far,” with the highest disapproval among:

Independent voters (73 %)
Mild‑to‑moderate Republicans (65 %)
Millennials (71 %)

Why does this matter?

Swing Voters Are Wary: Independents, who make up roughly 42 % of the electorate, are more likely to swing toward a candidate they perceive as a “steady hand,” even if that candidate belongs to a party with low current approval.
Re‑energized Democratic Base: The perception that Trump is over‑reaching can galvanize progressive activists and moderate Democrats alike, feeding fundraising and volunteer pipelines for 2026.
Potential GOP Fragmentation: If the GOP remains split between staunch Trump loyalists and “institutional” Republicans, the Democratic vote share could benefit from a divided opposition.

3. What This Means for the 2026 Midterms

3.1 Campaign Playbooks Must Pivot

Traditional Tactic	Why It Needs Rethinking	New Angle
“Attack the Opposition”	Voters already dissatisfied with Trump; negative ads risk fatigue.	Positive Policy‑Centric Messaging – Emphasize concrete plans on climate, health, and jobs.
Heavy Emphasis on “Party Unity”	Unity is assumed, but approval data shows cracks.	Showcase Fresh Faces – Recruit credible newcomers to signal change within Democratic ranks.
Rely on “War Room” TV Ads	Younger voters (key to the 45 % who may vote Democrat) spend more time on streaming platforms.	Digital‑First Outreach – TikTok, Instagram Reels, and podcasts with issue‑specific storytelling.

3.2 Target the “Maybe‑Dem” Voter

The poll’s 45 % “still might vote for a Democrat” segment is not monolithic. It can be broken down further:

Sub‑group	Approx. Share of the 45 %	Key Concern	Suggested Message
Suburban Moderates (30 %)	13.5 %	Economic stability & school funding	“We’ll protect your paycheck and keep schools excellent.”
Young Progressives (20 %)	9 %	Climate change & student debt	“Bold climate action and debt relief—no more waiting.”
Minority Voters (15 %)	6.75 %	Criminal‑justice reform & health equity	“Justice, health, and opportunity for all.”
Independents (35 %)	15.75 %	Institutional trust & bipartisanship	“Working across the aisle for real results.”

Strategic implication: Campaigns that customize their outreach to each slice will extract the maximum possible turnout from this “undecided‑but‑lean‑Dem” pool.

3.3 Counter‑Balancing Trump’s Shadow

Even though the poll shows a majority disapproving of Trump’s power use, the former president still commands a solid 29 % core support. Democrats should:

Highlight Checks and Balances: Frame the narrative around protecting democracy (e.g., “We keep the President in check so your rights stay safe”).
Localize the Fight: Show how federal overreach impacts local communities—schools, small businesses, public safety.
Avoid Over‑Personalization: Focus on institutional issues rather than personal attacks that could backfire with moderate voters.

4. The Road Ahead – What to Watch

Timeline	Indicator	Why It Matters
Q1‑Q2 2026 (Primary Season)	Candidate quality & fundraising – Are fresh, credible candidates emerging?	High‑caliber tickets can convert low approval into higher turnout.
Mid‑2026 (Debates & Ads)	Message resonance – Social‑media sentiment analysis on policy‑focused ad copy.	Real‑time feedback lets campaigns double‑down on winning themes.
Late‑2026 (General Election)	Turnout projections for independents & swing districts – Voter‑file modeling.	The “maybe‑Dem” voters are the decisive factor in close races.

5. Bottom Line

Democrats are in a tricky spot: a record‑low job approval but a surprisingly resilient base of potential voters for 2026. The Quinnipiac poll tells us two things:

Voter dissatisfaction is not fatal—it is an opportunity to re‑brand, recruit fresh talent, and double‑down on policies that matter to the electorate.
Trump’s legacy remains a double‑edged sword. While a majority sees his use of power as excessive, his loyalist core still exerts influence. The Democratic narrative must therefore be about protecting democratic norms while offering a forward‑looking, solution‑driven agenda.

If the party can translate the 45 % “maybe‑vote‑Dem” sentiment into actual ballots, 2026 could be a turning point—turning a low‑approval nightmare into a pragmatic victory.